The round-table conference ‘CHINA AND THE WORLD: CHANGING REALITY AND SHARED FUTURE' was held online sucessufully on 31st July 2020, which was co-organized by the Institute for a Community with Shared Future (ICSF) from China, the Centre For New Inclusive Asia (CNIA) from Malaysia, and The Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute (DOC Research Institute) from Germany. Experts and reserchers from China, Germany, Malaysia, the UK, the US, Singapore, South Africa and etc.shared their perceptions and ideas with rational arguments from multi-perspectives towards the transforming world situation under both the COVID-19 pandemic and the tension of China-US relation, and then discussed solutions to expect a promising shared future for the whole humankind. The article below was compiled from some expert's speech on the conference. --Eds
Gao ZhiKai
Chair Professor of Soochow University
Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization
Thank you, Madam Chair. And thank you all the other panelists. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the co-organizers for this very important meeting.
I've learned a lot from all the speakers prior to my intervention, we are living in a very fast moving global situation. I think every country has a duty to look at what you want to do for its people, for its government. Not only today, but in terms of what will come in 10, 20 or 50 years to come. So I think whatever we are doing has a lot of responsibility for ourselves, for our future generations. I would say today's world is still very much dominated by war and peace. And the more dominant theme should be development rather than war. It is unimaginable that war breaks out between China and the United States, because that will be hugely self disruptive. But also it will be a catastrophe for mankind as a whole. I will focus on how and why China and the United States need to get along rather than, for example, getting to each other's channel as what we are experiencing from decision-makers in Washington have been doing over the past three years and half.
Now, first of all, China-US relations have never been as bad as it is today since Dr. Henry Kissinger secret visit to China in 1971. And since president Nixon's important landmark visit to China in 1972, and since the normalization of China-US relations in 1979, I'm afraid China-US relations will get worse between now and November the 3rd, and also most likely between now and January the 20th, 2021. Why? Because it's very obvious that president Donald Trump and his close circles are really using this China action as one of the few ways they can use to try to reverse it’s plummeting presidential re-election fortunes. Therefore, the coming several months will be very very dangerous in terms of whatever crisis you may imagine in China-US relations. I think Chinese government is fully mobilized to stand and for alert to deal with whatever contingency events that may be initiated by Washington, especially in the running up to the presidential election. And in the transition, which most likely will happen on January the 21st.
Now what will happen? On November the 3rd, I'm afraid America will be damned if Trump wins. And America will be damned if trump loses. Why? Because if Trump wins, which is highly unlikely, he probably will feel very much vindicated. And he will have no more restraint in dealing with his so called domestic enemies, or whoever who disagree with him inside the United States. And he may have no more restraint in man handling whichever foreign governments he may find an issue with. So we are talking about a more turbulent, more unpredictable world if Trump wins.
If Trump loses，most likely, he will refuse to acknowledge his defeat. And he probably will do things which will plunge the United States into one of the most serious constitutional crisis in his history. And the fact that Trump even dared to indicate that the presidential election should be force bond, which is really revealing in the fullest way that he is standing up for democracy or rule of law, is really standing up for his own vested interests in the United States, and is not really standing on the top of the mountain in terms of human rights or democracy, etc. in dealing with not only the American people at home, but also in dealing with foreign countries in the world.
So I think we need to be prepared against a lot of unexpected things in the coming months. Now, what will happen on January the 20th, 2021? If by the weeks I think it would take time for him to readjust, to the fact that China, the United States, need to have a better way to re-engage with each other. And cutting at each other's jugular is not serving China's interest. But it's also not serving the US interest.
Now why I'm confident about the medium term and longer term China-US relations. First of all, China is not an enemy of the United States. And the Chinese people are not enemies with the American people. This is the most fundamental thing. She was a famous figure skater in the United States. She was involved in the whacking of the kneecap of Nancy Kerrigan, another promising American figure skater. And eventually, when the dust settled, Tonya was far from figure skating competition for lives. I think the fundamental problem in Washington in dealing with China now, despite of all the protestations and all the labeling, that characterization by many decision makers or their advisers in Washington, can be boiled to this Tonya Harding syndrome. Because the United States is not comfortable with fair and open competition with China. The United States is very much worried about, eventually, China outgrowing the size of the United States. And eventually, once that eventuality happens, the United States worried about its losing this global leadership.
Now from the Chinese perspective, we right to peaceful development is inherent in China's sovereignty. And it belongs to any other country in the world. All countries, big or small, should have the right to peaceful development. Competition is inherent in many things, if not in all things that we do as human beings, as families, for example, as companies, as societies, or as civilizations. So competition is not something to be worried about or something to be appalled or something to be stopped. Competition should be encouraged. And that should be accepted as a matter of life, for example. Therefore, I think if China and the United States are left to themselves in peaceful competition, then I think their system or the way they deal with their domestic affairs, the way they deal with international affairs, the way they deal with international organizations, will give different performance as to how the economy will have developed.
Now, China's 41 years of record of opening to the outside world. And economic reform speaks very loudly and eloquently about the fundamental changes that have taken place in China. I think the Chinese people are very much proud of these changes. The key driver for these changes is not the so called stealing of right By the Chinese government or by Chinese companies against the American people. There has been no pressure by anyone in China to force any company in the United States to migrate whatever manufacturing capacities in the United States to China. All the American companies will now open up their pack factories and manufacturing capacities in China. Did that willingly on their own volition and achieving their own profitability in doing their business in China.
Therefore, I think what Washington has been doing over the past several years definitely has achieved the goal of poisoning China-US relations. I think the American people are great people. And Chinese people treat them with dignity and with equality. And we want to be friends with the American people. But I would say China-US relations have been poisoned by probably the top leader in the United States, as well as his close advisers and subordinates. But as we have learned very convincingly, some people can fool the American people some of the time. But it is highly unlikely that they can fool the American people all the time. Given their dignity and decency. I think the American people eventually will realize that to treat China as an enemy is a futile thing. And eventually it's mutually destructive of China and the United States.
Now today one very important piece of news is that the second quarter GDP growth of China is actually larger than that of the United States. I think for the first time, over the past several decades, the quarterly GDP growth of China already surpass that of the United States. That's mainly because of the huge contraction of the US economy by almost 1/3 in the second quarter. China's economy has been more or less normalized and its chopping along in a very domestic, robust way going forward. I would say in about 10-15 years, China's economy will definitely catch up with the size of the US economy. And decision makers in Washington need to come to terms with the fact that China is indeed a larger economy, and most likely very impact full on the global stage than the United States.
So I would say in the coming 10-15 years time, there will be a mellowing down in Washington. And decision makers and their advisers and the US population in general will gradually come to terms. It doesn't mean they would like the fact, but they will come to terms with the fact that China will become a larger economy now. Even today, it's not absolutely the case that the United States is ahead of China in all categories of relevance. China is already ahead of the United States and many, many important categories. China is the largest manufacturing country, the largest exporting country, China has the largest consumer markets in the world, for example, you name it. And China's production of more than 200 key-items are larger than that of the United States. And in many cases, the Chinese production account for more than 50% of the global production. China contributes roughly about the line that, contributes to about 1/3 of the additional GDP growth of the world. So I think whatever Washington does, whatever knee whacking kneecap working tactics in the coming few years, China's continued growth is irresistible. And in about 10 years time, America will need to mellow down and accept the fact that China is a very very significant economy to get along with.
Now, what does it mean for us today? I think China's growth of the past 40 years has been achieved without firing a shot, without occupying any foreign territory, without exporting an ideology of legal system or way of life, for example. And I think this is unprecedented in human history, at least over the past 500 years, and a larger China, compared with that of the United States doesn't mean that China want to take over the world from the United States. I think as president Xi Jinping has been saying, the world is large enough to accommodate both the United States and China. And as president Xi Jinping mentioned just a few days ago, he believed that the mega trends in the world today is still development. So development is the key. So let us all focus on peace and development and let our own track record speak for themselves. And if some country wants to do kneecap whacking, that's the wrong thing to do. That's the indecent thing to do. And if the world's people realize the tendency of working the league to put out competition, there will be an anticlimax eventually. Thank you very much.
For Chinese Translation, view at http://icsf.cuc.edu.cn/2020/1020/c5607a174061/page.htm
Speaker: Gao Zhikai